International ocean freight rates continue to fall

A number of airline companies and freight forwarding practitioners said that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic control, the limited transportation of raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products is the key to the continued decline in market freight rates.

Recently, the spot freight rates of some routes from Asia to Europe and the United States have declined, and the demand for sea container transportation has also declined. The Shanghai Stock Exchange released the latest one-week export container freight index SCFI on the 13th, falling for 17 consecutive weeks, down 0.38% to 4147.83 points, only the freight rate of the US-Western route rebounded slightly by 0.15%, and the freight rate of the other major routes continued to be sluggish; accumulative SCFI so far this year It fell 18.82%, mainly dragged down by the 24.65% drop in European routes, as for the US East route, down 10.76%, and the US West route down by 1.18%.

The cumulative decrease in the basic freight rate of major routes since the beginning of this year:

1. European routes fell the most by 24.65%, and the freight rate dropped from US$7,777/TEU to US$5,860/TEU, down by US$1,917;

2. The U.S.-East route decreased by 10.76%, and the freight rate decreased from USD 11,833/FEU to USD 10,560/FEU, a decrease of USD 1,273;

3. The US West Line decreased by only 1.18%, and the freight rate dropped from USD 7,994/FEU to USD 7,900/FEU, a decrease of less than USD 100.

Shipping market forecast for the second half of the year:

The world’s two major shipping giants are not optimistic about the freight rates in the second half of the year. Recently, Hapag-Lloyd hinted that the spot (spot) freight rates in the second half of the year may drop significantly; earlier, Maersk held a corporate conference call after the first quarter earnings announcement. , also revealed that the spot freight rate in the second half of the year is not optimistic.

Industry insiders pointed out that the key to the continuous decline in spot freight rates lies in the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the epidemic. Recently, with the unblocking and continuous resumption of work and production, some analysts are optimistic that there will be a wave of retaliatory shipments. However, Haberrod takes this conservatively.

Personal opinion: It may be expected to rebound in the short term.

Spot rates have been well below their highs since the start of the year. Over the past 10 weeks, ocean freight rates have fallen 20% from their peak levels, senior logistics analyst Lee Klaskow said in a research note. “The virus has put pressure on demand, which has alleviated some bottlenecks in the supply chain. Once the epidemic restrictions are eased, freight volumes may surge, which may boost demand for liner capacity and lead to higher freight rates.”